With the intensive progress of railway informat ization, the need of study on auotmation of railway classification shunting operation,especially the integration of primary sub-administration day plan and train consist has become increasingly urge.

The results indicate that when there is relative high individual TS s and slightly varied total forecasting performance,the majority voting method can improve the forecasting accuracy greatly;when the accuracies of various numerical forecasting methods for grade.

The comparative analysis of the relative economic value curve of EPS probability and deterministic forecasts of the ensemble forecasting system shows that the probability forecasting system is obviously super.

To solve the problem of determining time lag and dimension simultaneously, a new method of phase space analog prediction has been advanced with maximizing the historical forecast accuracy.